Week 11 has come and gone and we started to see mother nature get involved in several games namely the Houston vs. Chicago game and the Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh game. Both turned into wet, run heavy games with no passer exceeding 155 yards. We have not had to worry about weather so far this season but it may be time to at least take a look before locking in those line-ups.
Another thing to take notice of was the yahoo outage, which started around 12pm eastern on SUNDAY. I’m not sure how many of you use yahoo leagues but I heard countless horror stories this week. I have two quick things on this, first, yahoo is the run away leader for fantasy football and I’m giving them a pass this one time.
If it happens again I’m jumping ship as I’ve got too much ‘invested’ in various leagues but I’m not leaving the best fantasy site on the net after one snafu. Number two, let this be a lesson to us all to make sure our lineups are set by Friday or sometime Saturday. I usually set my preliminary line up Tuesday or Wednesday especially with the Thursday games then come back Sunday morning to make any tweaks based on news/tweets. I’d suggest you take a similar approach to ensure you know you always have your best line up in play.
Off to the rankings!!!
Matchups to Exploit:
Carson Palmer has a great matchup vs. the Saints worst pass defense and he should take advantage. Don’t sit a stud like Peyton Manning or Stafford but if you are lucky enough to have Eli on a bye this week, Palmer should fill in just fine. The Saints allow 322 yards a game to QBs and Palmer has 106 attempts his last two games. This just in, Oakland likes to throw and odds are they’ll be playing catchup or at least keep up in this game.
Andrew Luck is hitting a nice stride and had his first solid game on the road last Thursday vs. the Jags. This week he gets the Pats who give up just under 300 yards a game passing. New England has allowed 19 passing touchdowns vs. only 10 interceptions. Luck has also proved he’s a threat to run for a score with five rushing touchdowns on the season.
Cam Newton should have a bounce back game vs. the Bucs that allow 331 yards passing and 20.1 points to opposing QBs. Tampa Bay ranks 4th on the season in points scored and Carolina has proven they have no ability to run the ball effectively so Cam will have to air it out to keep up.
Tony Romo looks primed for a nice game returning home and facing the Cleveland Browns. The Browns only allow 116 yards a game on the ground so Felix and company may struggle meaning Tony will have to throw to bring home the win.
Look out now, I’m throwing Colin Kaepernick in the mix and yes, he’ facing the vaunted Bears defense. Obviously this pick is based on Smith being out but if Colin plays, I think he’ll be just fine, from a fantasy perspective. He showed last week he has no problem pulling the ball down and running and I expect he’ll gain at least 50 yards on the ground. Excuse the comparison but think of Tebow, only faster and a more accurate passer.
The other point here is Chicago will be without Jay Cutler so their defense could spend a lot more time on the field if Campbell fails to move the ball. Jason could also provide a couple short field opportunities for Kap and the 49er’s. Kaepernick will have an interception or two but if he puts up 65 yards rushing, 150 yards passing with one rushing TD, one passing TD and one pick that’s good for 20.5 points, a very solid day for a back-up QB.
Matchups to Avoid:
Joe Flacco leads off this list as he has played horribly on the road this year. He averages almost 23 points a game at home but less than 10 points a game on the road. This week Flacco goes to Pittsburgh to play the Roethlisbergerless Steelers. I think this game is won on the ground and is low scoring.
Philip Rivers could struggle at Denver this week. Champ Bailey has been a shut down corner and the Charges just don’t have an elite wide receiver corps to make up the difference. The Broncos allow a low 6.5 yards per attempt so it could be dink and dunk for Rivers.
Matt Schaub may not have to do much work at home on Sunday as the Jags have the 30th worst run defense in the league. Schaub only had 95 yards passing last week and the Jags have only allowed 9 passing touchdowns through 9 games. This should be the Foster show we were expecting vs. the Bills two weeks ago.
Below is the full line-up for week 10 matchups. The charts below read as follows: Defense Rank vs. Position (QB, RB, WR, TE) Team Name, Opponent, Team Studs, and Matchups to watch.
Defenses with a rank of 32 are the worst and give up the most points to the position. Defenses with 1 are the best and give up the fewest points to the position. I’ve mentioned it before but for you new readers, I’m not ranking Nick Foles over Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, it’s just that Foles has better matchup due to the defense he’s facing.
32 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Palmer
31 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Tannehill
30 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> Foles
29 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
28 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Brees
27 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Luck
26 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> Newton
25 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
24 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Romo
23 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> Dalton
22 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Sanchez
21 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Fitzpatrick
20 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
19 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Brady
18 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Schaub
17 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> Manning
16 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Rodgers
15 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Stafford
14 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Cassel
13 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Rivers
12 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> RGIII
11 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> Skelton
10 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Freeman
9 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Bradford
8 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> Ryan
7 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Weeden
6 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Leftwich
5 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Campbell
4 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Gabbert
3 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Flacco
2 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
1 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Smith, Kaepernick
Matchups to Exploit:
Reggie Bush didn’t produce last week the way I’d expected but he gets the easiest matchup this week and should be considered a low end RB1 or high end RB2. The Bills have given up 16 touchdowns to RBs through 9 games, that’s 4 more than any other team. On average they allow opposing RBs to score 27.7 points a week, yes please!
Marcel Reece is poised for yet another big game, especially in PPR formats. I don’t buy that McFadden will be back this week so Reece against the Saints that give up 50 yards receiving to RBs and another 137 on the ground looks very juicy. Add the fact that this should be a high scoring affair and you’ve got yourself a solid RB2 this week.
Larod Stephens-Howling has a better matchup than you might think. The Falcons allow 156 yards a game to RBs and a 4.7 yard per carry average. LSH is playing for his job this week with Beannie Wells expected back next week. LSH will be playing inspired ball and the should see a couple extra looks as a receiver and Atlanta allows 48 yards a game receiving to RBs. LSH is a good flex this week.
Stephen Jackson may have just played his way back to a featured role. Look the trade deadline has come and gone and SJax is still a Ram. That said, he will not be a Ram next year so look for St Louis to use him more heavily down the stretch. The Jets give up 151 yards a game and 21.1 points to opposing RBs. SJax is a solid RB2 this week and a great flex.
CJ Spiller has a tough matchup vs. Miami’s 5th best run defense but it won’t matter. The Fins only allow 116 yards a game to RBs but with Fred Jackson sidelined with a concussion, Spiller will get a full workload. Chan Gailey reported he plans to give Spiller between 25 and 30 touches on Thursday. During the 2012 season Spiller is averaging over 8 yards per touch. Let’s see, 25 times 8, carry the 2, that’s 200 yards! I’m not saying he reaches that level but he should have a great day and is a top tier RB1.
Matchups to Avoid:
Ryan Mathews faces a middle of the road defense in the Broncos who rank 14th vs. the RB. However, Denver has had no trouble putting up points with both their defense and offense lately and that means San Diego could be playing from behind. Ronnie Brown seems to be the third down/passing RB of choice for the Chargers so I think we’ll see a lot more of him Sunday afternoon.
Frank Gore was my ‘exploit’ gut call last week and produced nicely in a bad matchup vs. St Louis but don’t expect that to happen again. Reports out of San Fran were that Gore was ‘very sore’ after the game so I expect Kendall Hunter will see more action this week as the 49er’s try to keep Gore somewhat fresh for a playoff run. There’s also the situation at QB with Smith possibly missing the game. If Kaepernick starts at QB, which I’m expecting, the Bears will probably put 8 in the box and force Colin to beat them with his arm.
Rashad Jennings production has trailed off in three consecutive weeks scoring 16, 10, 7 and 2 points over the last four weeks. Jennings faces the Texans who only give up 11.1 points a game to RBs and have still not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Jennings was the hottest waiver pickup after MJD went down but he’s borderline droppable at this point.
32 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Bush, Thomas
31 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Reece
30 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Foster
29 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Thomas, Ivory
28 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
27 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Redman
26 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> LSH
25 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Ridley
24 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> BJGE
23 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Martin
22 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Jackson, Richardson
21 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Charles
20 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Jones
19 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Greene
18 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Richardson
17 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> JStew
16 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> Morris
15 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Leshoure
14 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Mathews
13 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> McGahee
12 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
11 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> Turner
10 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> McCoy
9 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Ballard, Brown
8 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Rice
7 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Green
6 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
5 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Spiller
4 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
3 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Gore
2 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Jennings
1 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Forte
Matchups to Exploit:
Denarius Moore continued his hot streak with another touchdown this weekend, he’s scored in 4 of the last 5 games. This week he plays the Saints that allow 213 yards a game to opposing WRs. The Saints also allow the second highest yards per attempt average in 16.0 second only to the Chiefs so look for Moore or DHB to get deep. Moore is 12th in targets and 7th in WR points the last three weeks, I expect another nice game as a solid WR2.
Jeremy Maclin has a new quarterback and Nick Foles looked his way often last week after taking over for Vick. Maclin ended the game with 12 targets which he turned into eight receptions for 93 yards and a score. Foles and Maclin face the pass friendly Redskins that give up 221 yards and 29.3 points a game to opposing wide receivers. The Redskins also have a high 15.1 YPA but I think Maclin dominates this matchup, not Desean Jackson.
Steve Smith struggled as expected last week vs. Champ Bailey and only managed one catch for 19 yards. Lucky for Smith he gets a nice bounce back game vs. Tampa Bay that just allowed Danario Alexander 134 yards and a score. The Bucs give up 232 yards a game to opposing wide receivers and Smith ranks 3rd in targets over the last three weeks so you have to think he should be able to capitalize.
Wes Welker faces the Colts this week that only give up 12.6 yards per attempt. In other words, they can be beat with short passes out of the slot, exactly where Welker plays and exceeds. The typical knock on Welker is the lack of touchdowns though he dropped an easy seem pass Sunday that would have netted a nice 30 yard touchdown. Welker is 6th on the season in targets and 16th in wide receiver scoring, he’s a solid WR2 this week.
Marques Colston faces the Raiders this weekend in what I think should be a shoot out and with a current over/under of 54, Vegas seems to agree. Besides Jimmy Graham, Colston is Brees go to guy and is currently 11th in targets on the year. Oakland gives up 15.1 yards per attempt meaning they can be beat deep and I think Colston will take advantage.
Matchups to Avoid:
Brandon Marshall has a new quarterback and Jason Campbell is not known as a deep ball passer. He averages 6.7 yards per attempt. Here are some comparisons, Rodgers (8.1), Romo (8.0), Big Ben (8.0), Rivers (7.9). I think all this leads to fewer attempts down field as the Bears lean more heavily on the run and Matt Forte. It doesn’t help that he is facing the 49ers that rank 6th vs. wide receivers and have only give up four touchdowns to wide outs.
Mike Wallace also lost his quarterback last week and his situation is actually worse. Byron Leftwich has a career yards per attempt of 6.6 so I like Emmanuel Sanders more than Wallace this week. Add the fact that the Ravens only allow a low 12.7 yards per attempt to wide outs and I think Wallace is held in check this week.
Dwayne Bowe squares up against the Bengals that have only allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Bowe hasn’t eclipsed 80 yards or scored in five consecutive games. While Cassel back at QB did help the targets, the yards and scores just haven’t been there. Bowe remains a WR2 in PPR formats as he’s 8th in targets on the year but in standard leagues he’s a WR3 or flex.
32 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Moore, DHB
31 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> Jackson, Maclin
30 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> Smith, Lafell
29 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
28 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Wayne, Avery
27 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Welker, Llyod
26 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
25 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Johnson, Jones
24 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Hartline, Bess
23 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Johnson, Young, Broyles
22 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
21 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Colston, Moore
20 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> Thomas, Decker
19 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> White, Jones
18 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Johnson
17 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Nelson, Cobb, Jones
16 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> Moss, Hankerson
15 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Wallace, Sanders
14 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> AJ Green, Hawkins
13 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
12 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Little, Gordon
11 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Kerley
10 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Bowe
9 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Crabtree, Manningham
8 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams
7 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Blackmon, Shorts
6 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Marshall
5 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> Fitzgerald, Roberts
4 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Floyd, Alexander
3 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Amendola, Gibson, Givens
2 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin
1 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
Matchups to Exploit:
Brent Celek has the enviable task of facing the Redskins that have given up seven touchdowns to tight ends and allow 70 yards per game. With Nick Foles taking over the reigns of the offense, he’ll look to his first or second read mostly and keep the routes short to get the ball out quickly. I think Celek will outperform expectations Sunday.
Dustin Keller faces the Rams that give up 60 yards a game to the tight end position. Keller is 11th in targets the last three weeks and is definitely Sanchez’s security blanket. He should produce TE1 numbers this week.
Matchups to Avoid:
Logan Paulsen is matched up vs. the Eagles that have only given up two touchdowns to tight ends all year. RGIII seems to have hit a slump lately and with the Redskins coming off a bye, look for them to get back to the run game more and let RGIII manage a game instead of try to win it.
32 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Gates
31 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> Celek
30 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
29 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Allen
28 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Kendricks
27 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Moeaki
26 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> King
25 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Fasano
24 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Graham
23 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Finley
22 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
21 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Keller
20 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
19 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Myers
18 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Chandler
17 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
16 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
15 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Miller
14 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> Gresham
13 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
12 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
11 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis
10 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Pitta
9 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> Paulsen
8 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Watson
7 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> Gonzalez
6 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Davis
5 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> Dreesen
4 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Davis
3 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Witten
2 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Daniels
1 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Gronkowski, Hernandez
So, you’ve checked out the article, what do you think? Leave a comment below and let me know if you agree or disagree with my analysis.
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Feel free to shoot me start/sit questions or any other fantasy questions, I’m always up for a good discussion and always answer my tweets. Good luck in week 11!